MAKE A MEME
View Large Image
| View Original: | Global sea level rise projections 2000-2100.png (1066x692) | |||
| Download: | Original | Medium | Small | Thumb |
| Courtesy of: | commons.wikimedia.org | More Like This | ||
| Keywords: Global sea level rise projections 2000-2100.png sea level rise SLR by 2100 compared to 2000 It is based on several studies Projections range from 18 to 200 8 cm Projections Projections are for the late-21st-century 2090-2099 relative to the late-20th-century 1980-1999 AR4 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projected sea level rise in its Fourth Assessment Report IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 <ref name ar4 projections > http //www ipcc ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/spms3 html 3 Projected climate change and its impacts in Summary for Policymakers in harvnb IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 </ref> Projections suggest SLR of between 18-59 cm IPCC AR4 SYR 2007 <ref name ar4 projections /> state Because understanding of some important effects driving sea level rise is too limited this report does not assess the likelihood nor provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise According to the US National Research Council US NRC 2012 <ref> http //www nap edu/openbook php record_id 13389 page 88 Ch 5 Projections of Sea-Level Change in US NRC 2012 88 </ref> the AR4 projections are likely underestimates because they do not account fully for cryospheric processes US NRC 2011 US NRC 2011 <ref> http //www nap edu/openbook php record_id 12877 page 153 Summary of Sea Level Change in Ch 4 Physical Climate Change in the 21st Century in US NRC 2011 153 </ref> project SLR of about 50-100 cm Horton et al Projections of SLR by Horton et al 2008 <ref> Results in Horton others 2008 2 </ref> range from 47-100 cm According to Horton et al 2008 <ref> Abstract in Horton others 2008 1 </ref> the projections described here are likely to underestimate future sea level rise if recent trends in the polar regions accelerate Grinsted et al Grinsted et al 2009 <ref name grinsted slr > Table 2 in Grinsted others 2009 7 </ref> made several projections of SLR Assuming moderate growth in future greenhouse gas emissions the SRES A1B scenario sea level is projected to rise by 91-132 cm This projection is based on a historical temperature reconstruction by Moberg et al 2005 <ref> Moberg others 2005 </ref> referred to by Grinsted et al 2009 <ref name grinsted slr /> US NRC 2012 US NRC 2012 <ref name us nrc 2012 > http //www nap edu/openbook php record_id 13389 page 89 TABLE 5 2 in Ch 5 Projections of Sea-Level Change in US NRC 2012 89 </ref> project SLR of 82 7 cm with an error range of �10 6 cm Their lower and upper projections of SLR are 50 4 cm and 140 2 cm respectively US NRC 2012 <ref> http //www nap edu/openbook php record_id 13389 page 92 Discussion of Global Projections in Ch 5 Projections of Sea-Level Change in US NRC 2012 92 </ref> state No formal probability analysis of the individual contributors of uncertainty was performed so the projections are not necessarily the likeliest outcomes and the ranges are not the highest or lowest possibilities Jevrejeva et al Jevrejeva et al 2012 <ref> Table 3 in Jevrejeva others 2012 17 </ref> project SLR using four of the RCP emissions scenarios For these scenarios SLR projections range from 57-110 cm median estimates with an error range 5-95 confidence intervals of 36-165 cm Vermeer and Rahmstorf Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009 <ref> Vermeer Rahmstorf 2009 </ref> referred to by US NRC 2012 <ref name us nrc 2012 /> project SLR of 121 cm with a range of 78-175 cm <ref>The projections cited by US NRC 2012 differ from those in the original paper by Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009 This is presumably because US NRC 2012 use a different base period for their projections US NRC 2012 use a base period of 2000-2100 while Vermeer and Rahmstorf 2009 use a base period of 1990-2100 </ref> Pfeffer et al Pfeffer et al 2008 <ref> Table 3 in Pfeffer others 2008 1342 </ref> project SLR of 78 5-200 8 cm According to Pfeffer et al 2008 <ref> Abstract in Pfeffer others 2008 1340 </ref> increases in excess of 2 meters are physically untenable We find that a total sea-level rise of about 2 meters by 2100 could occur under physically possible glaciological conditions but only if all variables are quickly accelerated to extremely high limits More plausible but still accelerated conditions lead to total sea-level rise by 2100 of about 0 8 meter Notes reflist References citation CITEREFGrinstedothers2009 Grinsted A et al 2009 Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100AD Clim Dyn ftp //ftp soest hawaii edu/coastal/Climate 20Articles/Grinsted 20Jevrejeva 202009 20SLR pdf doi 10 1007/s00382-008-0507-2 citation CITEREFHortonothers2008 Horton R et al 2008 Sea level rise projections for current generation CGCMs based on the semi-empirical method Geophysical Research Letters 35 http //pubs giss nasa gov/docs/2008/2008_Horton_etal pdf doi 10 1029/2007GL032486 2008 L02715 Paper at http //pubs giss nasa gov/abs/ho05300q html NASA GISS Fourth Assessment Report AR4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Core Writing Team; Pachauri R K; and Reisinger A IPCC Geneva Switzerland http //www ipcc ch/publications_and_data/ar4/syr/en/contents html 92-9169-122-4 citation CITEREFJevrejevaothers2012 Jevrejeva S et al 2012 Sea Projections to AD2500 with a new generation of climate change scenarios Global and Planetary Change 80-81 http //kaares ulapland fi/home/hkunta/jmoore/pdfs/jev_moore_grin_Glob_Ch_2012 pdf doi 10 1029/2007GL032486 2008 L02715 Paper available at http //kaares ulapland fi/home/hkunta/jmoore/johnarticles html John Moore's website Professor Arctic Centre University of Lapland; Chief Scientist College of Global Change and Earth System Science Beijing Normal University citation CITEREFMobergothers2005 Moberg A et al Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data Nature 433 2005-02-10 http //www hvonstorch de/klima/pdf/moberg nature 0502 pdf doi 10 1038/nature03265 pp 613-317 Data available from http //www ncdc noaa gov/paleo/pubs/moberg2005/moberg2005 html NOAA citation CITEREFPfefferothers2008 Pfeffer W T et al 2008 Kinematic constraints on glacier contributions to 21st century sea-level rise Science 321 5894 ftp //dossier ogp noaa gov/NCASLR/Publications/Pfeffer 20Science 202008 pdf doi 10 1126/science 1159099 citation CITEREFUS NRC2011 US NRC 2011 Climate Stabilization Targets Emissions Concentrations and Impacts over Decades to Millennia http //www nap edu/catalog php record_id 12877 National Academies Press Washington D C USA 978-0-309-15176-4 citation CITEREFUS NRC2012 US NRC 2012 Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California Oregon and Washington Past Present and Future http //www nap edu/catalog php record_id 13389 National Academies Press Washington D C USA 978-0-309-25594-3 citation CITEREFVermeerRahmstorf2009 Vermeer M and S Rahmstorf 2009-12-22 Global sea level linked to global temperature Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences http //www pnas org/content/106/51/21527 full 10 1073/pnas 0907765106 106 51 21 527-21 532 issue 51 own Enescot 2013-05-02 Data Data are given below as comma-separated values CSV The data were exported from OpenOffice 3 4 1 Calc using the following options enclosed in braces Character set Western Europe Windows-1252/WinLatin ; Field delimiter ; text delimiter <pre> Study low estimate 1 low estimate 2 central estimate high estimate 1 high estimate 2 error range AR4 18 59 US NRC 2011 50 100 Horton et al 47 100 Grinsted et al 91 132 US NRC 2012 50 4 72 1 82 7 93 3 140 2 10 6 Jevrejeva et al 36 57 110 165 Vermeer and Rahmstorf 78 121 175 Pfeffer et al 78 5 200 8 estimates in cm </pre> Cc-zero Data Data are given below as comma-separated values CSV The data were exported from OpenOffice 3 4 1 Calc using the following options enclosed in braces Character set Western Europe Windows-1252/WinLatin ; Field delimiter ; text delimiter <pre> Study low estimate 1 low estimate 2 central estimate high estimate 1 high estimate 2 error range AR4 18 59 US NRC 2011 50 100 Horton et al 47 100 Grinsted et al 91 132 US NRC 2012 50 4 72 1 82 7 93 3 140 2 10 6 Jevrejeva et al 36 57 110 165 Vermeer and Rahmstorf 78 121 175 Pfeffer et al 78 5 200 8 estimates in cm </pre> Cc-zero Global warming graphs | ||||
